The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 for the first time since 2009 and are now a 7-point favorite at home against Duke in Week 4. Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold is turning a newly potent Kansas offense on its head, just as he did in Buffalo, which will allow the super-emerging Jayhawks to cover this week against outclassed and overrated Duke.
The market fell short of Leipold once his pieces were in place in Buffalo, where he went 29-14 ATS before being signed by Kansas. In Buffalo, he showed that he knew how to bring the talent of a superstar to a big result with running back Jaret Patterson now in the NFL. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is a versatile threat who just put West Virginia and Houston defenses to shame.
Public perception: It’s the Jayhawks. Surely, this hot streak must be coming to an end. At least that’s how I interpret the line move with the opening spread dropping from 9 to 7. I mentioned last week that I wanted to improve the favorites (finish 1-1), but this week I like the only favorite in Kansas.
Why you should back the Jayhawks -7 in Week 4
is Duke The Blue Devils are also on a 3-0 stretch for the first time since Week 2 of last season and that included a 52-33 victory over Kansas in late September. Daniels did not play in that matchup, and Duke proceeded to lose eight straight to close out the season 3–9.
Last year, Duke went 0-5 SU and ATS on the road, losing by an average of 30 points and being outscored 210-59. But with a 3-0 record, this must be an improved team, right? It could be, yes, but as always, you can’t just look at the scores or the win-loss record and call it a day. Details matter.
The Blue Devils have so far beaten one FCS team, Northwestern and Temple, two offenses that ranked 113th and 126th last year with two defenses that ranked 113th and 86th in the FBS, respectively. In those five road losses last season, Duke’s rushing defense allowed 297 yards (7.2 yards per rush) in a 48-17 loss to Virginia Tech and 266 rushing yards (6.3 yards per rush) in a loss by 45-7 against Wake Forest.
This early in the season, the stats can definitely be misleading. Currently, through two FBS games, Duke has a top-10 defense against the run. But those opponents, Temple and Northwestern, ranked 112th and 84th in rushing last year; this year it is 124 and 77, respectively.
The strength of the schedules is unmatched. Daniels and this Kansas offense have faced tougher opponents in West Virginia and Houston. As it is, the Jayhawks have a top-10 rushing unit with Daniels, Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. ranking seventh in rushing yards with 11 total career scores.
One problem we haven’t seen yet but could happen: Duke was in the bottom 10 in draws last year, and perhaps because of the competition it faced, that doesn’t appear to be an issue so far. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the Jayhawks are in the top 30 in snaps, forcing two turnovers apiece in wins over the Cougars and Mountaineers. Duke is in a “prove it to me” situation.
Score the points with the Jayhawks at home and watch this Big 12 team move to 4-0 for the first time since 2009